BlackBerry’s QNX gains spark talk of a comeback

Industry analyst Jeff Kagan says BlackBerry may have found a new growth path in automotive software and AI through its QNX business. The company’s recent record quarterly revenue, raised full-year outlook and rising share price have intensified attention on whether the turnaround can last.

Why it matters: - BlackBerry’s shift from smartphones to software shows whether a once-dominant consumer tech brand can rebuild around a different market. - Automotive software is becoming more important as vehicles add more AI and connected features. - A sustained turnaround could make QNX a bigger growth engine for BlackBerry and expand the company’s role in security, enterprise software and physical AI.

What happened: - Industry analyst Jeff Kagan said BlackBerry may have found its next growth opportunity in QNX software and the AI-driven vehicle market. - Kagan said BlackBerry is showing short-term strength, even though the long-term outcome remains uncertain. - BlackBerry’s QNX business recently reported record quarterly revenue. - BlackBerry raised its full-year revenue forecast. - BlackBerry’s share price has more than doubled this year.

The details: - BlackBerry was a major smartphone player for about a decade before Apple’s iPhone and Google Android reshaped the market. - The company has spent years under different leaders trying to find a new market niche. - QNX software is used by major automakers including Audi, Daimler, General Motors, Hyundai and Mercedes-Benz. - The automotive market gives BlackBerry a larger potential addressable market than its legacy handset business. - BlackBerry also competes in security and enterprise software against Microsoft, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and others. - John Giamatteo became BlackBerry’s CEO in 2021 after six years at McAfee, where he was president and chief revenue officer.

Between the lines: - Kagan’s comments frame BlackBerry’s current progress as a test of whether the company has learned from its earlier collapse in smartphones. - The strength of QNX matters because automotive software is moving from a support function to a core vehicle technology. - Giamatteo’s leadership is likely to be a key factor in whether the current momentum becomes durable growth. - Kagan said BlackBerry’s direction looks better than before, but the real question is whether the turnaround can become a long-term success.

What’s next: - Investors will be watching whether QNX can keep delivering revenue growth and whether BlackBerry can sustain its improved forecast. - BlackBerry’s next phase will likely depend on how effectively it expands in automotive software and adjacent markets. - Kagan said he will keep tracking BlackBerry’s competitive position and progress as more becomes clear.

The bottom line: - BlackBerry has a real new story in QNX, but the market still needs proof that the comeback can last.